CounterCurrent: Week of 12/02/24
“Free college for all” used to be all the rage. Where did it go?
The idea that every American should attend college has been drilled into our collective consciousness, thanks mostly to talking points from Democrats. But Republicans too have engaged with this idea by expanding student aid and eligibility.
In 2016 and 2020, the mantra “college for all” was featured heavily in the Democratic Party’s platform. Many candidates catered to college age voters by further encouraging student loan forgiveness. These policy initiatives, if enacted, would have been a boon to colleges and universities navigating strict budgets.
And yet, Americans have continued to shy away from college. Enrollment is down nearly one million since 2019. More Americans say they have little or no confidence in higher education. And with federal COVID-19 funds drying up, many small institutions are closing at a rapid clip—72 in the past four years. This demographic trouble has left colleges and universities vulnerable.
In the 2024 election, both Harris and Biden avoided “free college for all” rhetoric. Perhaps the Democratic Party received the hint this cycle: Americans no longer believe in higher education. The public has been priced out and ideologically sidelined.
All of this leaves me wondering, has the college bubble finally burst?
After the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis many, many, authors set out to nail down a single cause. Irrational exuberance featured heavily as a potential hypothesis. In a book of the same name, Robert J. Shiller argues that this psychological contagion—this exuberance—placed blinders on investors who likely otherwise would have seen signs of the impending crash. Of course, this theory doesn’t explain it all: corrupt rating agencies, failed regulation, and complex financial tools contributed to the crisis. But irrational exuberance, especially in the form of housing for everyone sponsored by government subsidized mortgages played an outsized role.
Are American colleges facing a similar fate? Four decades of pushing students onward to college. The gutting of apprenticeship programs. Accrediting agencies that shelter mediocrity and impose ideological standards. Subsidized student loans and grants that pay for the lion’s share of university budgets, and, in turn, artificially inflate tuition and student aid ceilings.
American policymakers and higher education leaders have been too cavalier, perhaps in their own exuberance they’ve spread the social contagion to the rest of us. Everyone must go to college. The party must go on.
But the times they are a-changin’.
According to Pew, roughly half of Americans say it’s less important to have a four-year college degree today in order to get a well-paying job than it was 20 years ago. As fewer young men go to college, their potential quality of life has improved: in 2011, 17 percent of young men without a degree were living in poverty—by 2023 it dropped to 12 percent. This is partly thanks to state-based solutions providing better K-12 options for technical education pipelines. These policies have led to better employment rates for those seeking trade credentials.
The incoming Trump administration has shown all but contempt for higher education and the Education Department (ED). President Trump has advocated for a greater reliance on apprenticeship programs (the first administration attempted to expand programs through the “Industry-Recognized Apprenticeship Program” which was dismantled by President Biden). The Administration has also encouraged federal agencies to do away with degree requirements for positions in favor of job experience. These policies further sideline higher education in the scuffle for federal funds.
Linda McMahon, Trump’s pick for Secretary of Education, is known for her practical ideas for reform—primarily viewing education as a pipeline for workforce development. Of course, it’s worth mentioning that Trump has promised to close or dismantle the ED and drastically reform accreditation.
Some colleges and universities have smelled the winds of change too. Boston University has “paused” admissions for 12 humanities departments. As Peter Wood notes for Minding the Campus, “I expect the [BU] administration there is looking at all sorts of ways to cut costs, and freezing graduate admissions in programs that can’t pay for themselves was an attractive option.” But Boston University is not the only institution. Other colleges and universities are slashing majors to cut costs.
Others have pivoted to dual enrollment as a means to getting students on the college-bound bandwagon. While such programs have existed for decades, most were overseen by community colleges. Four year institutions are now sticking their necks out for a slice of the pie.
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) scholarship is on the decline, as we reported earlier this year. The Economist reports that America is finally past “Peak Woke.” Let’s hope so.
Of course, irrational exuberance continues to blind many higher education leaders. Five selective colleges announced last week an expansion in financial aid programs, some with plans raising family income thresholds to $200,000. Others have doubled-down on their much derided—and costly—DEI programs or rebranding to hide such programs’ ideological tilt.
Perhaps it's too early to announce the popping of the college bubble. But the rhetoric of free college for all is gone—for now. This changing atmosphere presents a grand opportunity to reform higher education. The National Association of Scholars has ready to go policies to extract the illiberal craze that has dominated higher ed for the better part of a decade, and others to bring tuition down from its lofty heights. Institutions will likely close as a result, but a little pain is necessary to readjust higher education to provide the best possible education for qualified students.
Until next week.
P.S.: I would find myself chastised by our development team if I didn’t mention that today is Giving Tuesday! If you’d like to donate to the National Association of Scholars you can do so by clicking here. Your support helps us expand our programs, such as Minding the Campus and the Civics Alliance, and continue our work to reform higher education.
CounterCurrent is the National Association of Scholars’ weekly newsletter, written by the NAS Staff. To subscribe, update your email preferences here.
